September 7, 2004

All College Dinner

This address accompanies a slide presentation which can be viewed here.

Our New Challenge

Closing Comments

All-College Dinner – September 7, 2004

As you can see, there has been no fall enrollment data in my report so far. That is primarily because our dinner this year is a week earlier and even last year the numbers were only projections. They do not stabilize until almost the first of October. But I do want to give you what information we do have, particularly because it seems the results will be quite challenging.

While our enrollment will likely be disappointing, I want to assure you that our Admissions staff has done their part very effectively! It appears we will be admitting a class of around 340 new students, the second largest in the past four years and 15 to 20 more than last year. What's more, the number of applicants, acceptances, and deposits were also well above the four year average. Applications were 33% higher (291), acceptances were 16% higher (101), and deposits 6% higher (21). The systems for tele-counseling, and automated letter flows to high school seniors, juniors, their parents, and beginning soon now even to high school sophomores, are expanding our reach and I believe will work year after year to increase our new student population.

But several factors have also been at work to offset this great work! First, as you know, last semester's enrollment was already the lowest since spring 2000 with only 855 students enrolled compared to the four year average of 898. That is 43 students fewer. Second, last May we graduated 185 seniors, the largest class in our history. That is 45 students more than our four year average. Taken together, these two facts meant that we began the summer with almost 90 fewer potential returning students than we have in May over the past four years. This is the “hole in bucket” we have mentioned from time to time since mid-spring. Third, by May we began to notice that cancelled deposits were eroding even the surplus in that category until by the first of August, NET deposits finally dipped below the number for last year. As of today, we have had 56% more cancellations (64 vs. 41) than our 4 year average, most of them forfeiting deposits. Finally, we have so far found that as many as 20 continuing students already deposited and registered have not yet enrolled. The overall effect of these factors is that we could be as much as 90 students short of our budget target of 954 fall Full Time Equivalents.

This is of course very discouraging news. Last year, our average for the year was 30 FTE students fewer than we had budgeted and yet as you have heard tonight, the year ended well financially. And of course a great deal depends on how many students remain for the spring since our budget is based on the average of both semesters. There is evidence the fit of our incoming class is very good. For example, coaches have focused intensely on this issue and we denied admission to more than twice as many students this year (48 – 108%) as we have on average for the past 4 years (23). But the fact remains that if our shortfall is even half of what I suggest, we must take steps to adjust not only this year but by November we must propose an adjusted budget for the following year as well. This is because trustee policy requires us not to budget for more than the previous year.

As you can imagine, it is painful for me to share this news with you. I feel that because of judgments I have made I have let you down. Over the past several years I believe our confidence and morale have increased dramatically. So on at least three occasions over the past 12 months I have made decisions that involved risks in the hope of sustaining our momentum. I know many of you have long histories of doubt and worry and it has been my hope, and is still my hope to change that. So last fall, when our enrollment was down about 20 from our goal, I could have asked for steps then to economize. But I hoped with new efforts afoot in regard to retention, that our spring enrollment would lift our annual average enough to avoid that discouraging step. As you know, things did not turn out that way. Our fall to spring retention was weaker than we had hoped, so the overall annual average was then reduced to 30 students. In February, I made another judgment. That is the time when salaries are set. Again I could have taken significant steps to reduce or eliminate all increases for this current year. We certainly discussed that possibility. But February Admissions information was running dramatically ahead of any previous year. Based on that information I believed last year would be difficult financially but felt confident this year would move us forward. So once more not wanting to break the momentum of confidence and morale unnecessarily, and wanting very much to maintain the progress on salaries that is so important in my mind, I took the risk to offer significant pay increases for this current year, and then in May officially asked the trustees to allow us to budget based on recouping those 30 students rather than on the lowered number from last year. In each of these cases, I believed there was good reason to choose as I did, but I was mistaken.

We were working last year with an entirely different admissions system, for which we really had no comparable data. I was mistaken to suppose that the yields would be the same as in earlier years. So although I was well aware of the large graduating class, I did not anticipate the drop in net deposits from both new and returning students that began around April 25. While we are still not entirely sure what caused this, it seems that even those students who made deposits began to receive financial aid packages that left too much gap for them to afford to come. While our tuition did not increase any more than the average for private institutions last year, and was quite a bit less than some of our competitors, we also did not increase financial aid, still trying hard to reduce our discount rate and increase our net tuition revenue. But there is some evidence that even students who really wanted to be here, forfeited deposits and went to community colleges instead. That alternative is so different from GC that it seems to suggest finances were the primary issue. We have known for a year that we needed advice on financial aid, and had arranged last spring to bring a consultant this fall. They will be on campus within weeks. And now of course that advice will be particularly important to hear.

What all this means is that we will need to make significant adjustments to the budget for this year and at least tentatively for next year's budget as well. An expanded President 's Council serves as my budget committee and they will be meeting with me in the next few weeks to help me make these decisions as firmer enrollment numbers develop. Your suggestions to them or to me directly are welcome. We know of considerable savings that you have effected for both of the past two years in balancing our budget. And there are several positions that we have been unable to fill this year. These will certainly be helpful, though probably not enough by themselves.

But I hope you will not be too discouraged. Together we have made so much good progress these past few years. Together we have balanced our budget for four years! Together we have reduced our debt in that same period by $2.6 million dollars! Together we have increased salaries 18-19% in 5 years. Our benefits have improved to cover 75% of medical insurance and to add disability insurance for everyone. Faculty teaching loads have been decreased. We have a wonderful admissions staff and leadership there that gives us hope for the future. Together we have improved the great quality of a GC education adding two dormitories, a new classroom/bookstore, an Art Center , a Music Center soon to come, enhanced technology, multicultural and off-campus programming, exciting new majors, and even new safety and room furnishings throughout our residence halls. You have done good planning, with good prospects for outside evaluations, adding new programs that fit our mission, and that generate new revenue. The MAE/MAT and UTEP programs have only begun to flourish. This is all such good progress! Be encouraged!

So this year will be tough. And I feel a great deal of personal responsibility. But I will need your support, your ideas, your help. With them this can and will be a great year for Greenville College . We are always people of hope. It is time we celebrate God's mercy, and His presence within our community. Please hear with me the plea and promises of those among God's people who have gone before us.

•  Though I walk in the midst of trouble, You will revive me…Your right hand will save me. The Lord will perfect that which concerns me; Your mercy, O Lord, endures forever;
Do not forsake the works of your hands.
Psalm 138:7-8

•  Love has been perfected among us in this: that we may have boldness in the day of judgment; because as He is, so are we in this world. There is no fear in love; but perfect love casts out fear .
1 John 4:17-18

•  You have hedged me behind , and before , and laid Your hand upon me. Such knowledge is too wonderful for me!
Psalm 139:5-6

I invite Dr. Longman to come forward and close our time in prayer.

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Last updated: September 13, 2004